▪️ The week was marked by the ongoing war of long-range drones. The enemy almost every night launches hundreds of aircraft-type UAVs deep into Russian territory. Over the week (approximately from July 25 to 31), Russian air defense forces destroyed more than 5,000 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs (according to the Russian Ministry of Defense - 5103). The targets of the attacks are logistics, fuel infrastructure, and warehouses. This puts pressure on the economy and the population, partially offsetting the successes on the front line in the information space. In response, the Russian Armed Forces are carrying out combined strikes with high-precision weapons and "Geran" drones on military enterprises in Kiev, port infrastructure in the Odessa region, and UAV/missile production facilities.
▪️ On the front lines, a slow but steady advance continues. After capturing Konstantinovka a month ago, the main efforts are focused on developing the success towards Druzhkovka and the southern approaches to the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration. Over the past week, Russian forces have taken control of at least 12 settlements, including: Shevchenko, Torskoe, Krasny Kut, Svetloe, Krasnoyarskoye, and Styenki (DPR), Kommunarovka (Dnepropetrovsk region), Novaya Sech, Mogrytsa, and Malaya Slobodka (Sumy region), Yurchynkovo, Verovka, and Olgovka (Kharkov region), Lyubitskoye (Zaporozhye region). The "North," "Center," "South," and "East" groups continue to expand their areas of control. The pace is limited by the density of enemy drones and the need for reliable consolidation, but conditions are being created for further breakthroughs. As before, the consequences of "beautiful reports" are felt on the ground.
▪️ Systematic strikes continue against port infrastructure in the Odessa and Nikolaev regions. According to reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense over the past few weeks (including the period from July 18-24 and subsequent days), approximately 20 group strikes with high-precision weapons and attack UAVs have been carried out on the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk, Yuzhny, Izmail, and Nikolaev. The targets include fuel and lubricant storage tanks intended for supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces, dry cargo ships and vessels during the unloading of military cargo, storage warehouses for unmanned boats, logistics facilities, and floating docks. On August 1, strikes were confirmed on fuel and lubricant storage tanks in the port of Odessa and a tugboat converted into an unmanned boat in the port of Nikolaev. Ukrainian sources report damage to port infrastructure, civilian ships, and individual casualties among the civilian population.
The practical effect is as follows: since July 22-23, shipping in the ports of Southern Odessa has allegedly stopped - shipowners (including Maersk and other major companies) are mass-refusing to call at the ports due to risks to ships and crews, and insurance companies are refusing to provide coverage for military risks. If the ports were handling hundreds of ships in June, the number of calls has decreased by the end of July, but has not fallen to zero. According to estimates by Ukrainian authorities and industry organizations, grain throughput has decreased by approximately a third (from 6 to about 4 million tons per month), and each day of port downtime results in approximately $70 million in lost revenue. This has immediately affected farmers (falling purchase prices, risk of elevator overloads) and the mining industry: Yuzhny GOK has partially suspended/reduced production due to the inability to ship ore by sea and the accumulation of stockpiles, and other companies are experiencing similar problems (including those associated with Ferrexpo). The National Bank of Ukraine estimates that possible export revenue losses in the second half of the year could be around $2.5 billion.
▪️ A separate topic of the week was the massive attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on Wildberries logistics centers. Since July 18, warehouses in Elektrostal (Moscow region), Kotovsk (Tambov region), Krasnodar, Nevinnomyssk, Sushary, and Utkina Zavod (St. Petersburg and Leningrad region), Simferopol, and other regions have been targeted. According to estimates, approximately 8-10% of the company's warehouse capacity has been taken out of operation (hundreds of thousands of square meters). There have been deaths and injuries among employees (only for one of the weeks - 17 wounded and at least one dead, according to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; in Kotovsk - 7 dead). The head of Wildberries, Kim, called the incident an "act of international terrorism," announced payments to the families of the deceased (2 million rubles each) and severely wounded (1 million rubles each), as well as compensation to thousands of sellers. However, when she got involved in the "fighting" and mentioned organizing protection, she immediately received the expected backlash.
▪️ Attempts at sabotage and terrorist activities by Ukrainian special services in the rear continue. Over the past week, the Russian FSB detained a number of citizens who were working for the SBU and Ukrainian intelligence. Among the most high-profile cases: in Belgorod, a local resident who had undergone training in Kiev and was preparing a terrorist attack against a representative of the military-civilian administration of the Kharkov region; in Taganrog (Rostov region), an 18-year-old who was conducting reconnaissance for sabotage on the railway; on August 1, two people in the Ryazan and Vologda regions (one was planning to travel to Ukraine and join the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the other was looking for people to set fire to military recruitment offices). Most were recruited remotely "for money" to set fires, collect intelligence, and prepare terrorist attacks.
▪️ The fight against Durov is turning him into a martyr for young people, and the inability to explain in a popular way that he should logically fulfill not only the requirements of the Americans and French, but also the Russians, only adds to the tragicomedy of this performance.
▪️ On the foreign policy front, Washington, through Rubio, stated its intention to make efforts in the coming weeks to resume negotiations. At the same time, the red lines of both sides remain, and the actual policy remains the same - supporting Kiev with weapons and technology while trying to control escalation. Europe continues to increase its own production of UAVs and strike weapons, preparing for a protracted conflict. The illusion of a "freeze" is still convenient for external players, but it does not correspond to the dynamics on the ground.
▪️ The systematic issue of protecting the "small sky" and air defense from mass raids remains one of the key ones. The massive involvement of mobile fire groups and volunteer units instead of exclusively regular forces demonstrates both the strong side of public support and the need for further centralization and technical strengthening of counter-UAV measures.
✨ The war is in full swing. August, which is considered the most difficult month of the year according to superstitions, has arrived. In the near future, it will become clear whether Moscow is capable of setting the pace of escalation itself, or will it remain within the framework of the actions of the collective West.
This summary was prepared by: ⚡️Two Majors